Free Minutes
NBA fantasy argued from the numbers. Projections, category math and roster construction for head-to-head, roto and points leagues, built on minutes and possessions rather than on last season's rankings. One piece a day.
Franco MedinaDesk name
Free MinutesEvery projection here starts from per-minute production and a stated minutes assumption. Where the minutes are a guess, the piece says so.
Last filed October 30, 2026
The rest of the desk
Add Wagler in 12-team categories: the free throws changed it
Three games, 79 minutes, 17 of 19 from the line. The field goal percentage is still a cost, and here is what it costs. Daniss Jenkins is the other name, with a warning attached.
Franco MedinaDesk name · Oct 26, 2026 · 4 min read
Add Keaton Wagler in deep leagues: the Clippers open without Ingram, Strus and Beal
The rookie started the Clippers' last preseason game and played 28 minutes. Five Clippers are listed out for Wednesday's opener. Here is who gets those minutes, and what Wagler's shooting costs you in categories.
Franco MedinaDesk name · Oct 19, 2026 · 4 min read
Philadelphia plays four games in the first week, Portland two: fill your Thursday
The season opens Tuesday with 43 games before Sunday night. Only the 76ers play four, five teams play twice, and Thursday has two games. Here is what that does to your first matchup.
Franco MedinaDesk name · Oct 18, 2026 · 4 min read
Giannis and Bam shared 23 of Giannis' 32 preseason minutes. Take back half of the Bam discount
In September I priced Bam Adebayo a round late on a plan to stagger Miami's two bigs. In two preseason games they started together both times and played 22.7 minutes side by side. Move Adebayo up half a round, keep Antetokounmpo where he was, and watch the assists.
Franco MedinaDesk name · Oct 14, 2026 · 4 min read
LaMelo Ball's assists made the trip to Minnesota, and his turnovers came with them, almost doubled
In 59 preseason minutes next to Anthony Edwards, Ball has 17 assists and 11 turnovers. Draft him off last season's rates at 30 minutes, about 7.6 assists and 3.0 turnovers, and build your nine-cat team so the turnovers do not cost you a category.
Franco MedinaDesk name · Oct 13, 2026 · 3 min read
James Harden at 37: take him at his late third-round price, and draft him for points, not assists
Harden scored 24 in 26 minutes in his preseason debut. At an assumed 32 minutes that rate is 29.5 points a night and 2.5 assists. In 9-category head-to-head leagues, his late third-round cost already prices that in.
Franco MedinaDesk name · Oct 12, 2026 · 3 min read
Dallas plays 12 games in the last three weeks, New Orleans nine: use the schedule as a tiebreaker, not a reason to reach
I counted every team's games in each Monday-to-Sunday week of the 2026-27 schedule. Over March 22 to April 11, nine teams play 12 and New Orleans plays nine. In the week of March 29, the Pelicans play twice while 21 teams play four times.
Franco MedinaDesk name · Oct 11, 2026 · 5 min read
28 of the top 150 changed teams: draft them at their four-minutes-fewer rank, except Kawhi Leonard
I checked all 150 players in our pool against the NBA rosters of October 10. Twenty-eight are on new teams. In the first four rounds, the movers swing a median 58 places on a four-minute minutes miss, against 36 for players who stayed. Leonard holds at sixth. Kel'el Ware falls 60.
Franco MedinaDesk name · Oct 10, 2026 · 5 min read
Pick your second-rounder for your first-rounder: Embiid turns Donovan Mitchell's five categories into eight
I paired every first-round pick in a 12-team snake draft with the five players ranked at or just behind his second-round pick. In eight of 12 slots a better-fitting partner is there. In five of them it costs about two places on the board or less. Turnovers are the hole almost nobody fills.
Franco MedinaDesk name · Oct 9, 2026 · 4 min read
The draft cliff comes after Luka Dončić at sixth: slots 7 to 12 are worth almost the same
I added up what every slot in a 12-team snake draft collects in the first four rounds. Slot 1 gets 14.96 points of nine-category value and slot 6 gets 11.27. Slots 7 to 12 all land between 9.36 and 9.72.
Franco MedinaDesk name · Oct 8, 2026 · 4 min read
Before you pick a punt, pick the flexible player: Mikal Bridges loses 22 places at worst, Dyson Daniels loses 84
I ranked all 150 players under each of the nine punt builds. In the top 60, players above average in six categories lose a median 17 places in their worst build. Players above average in four lose 49. In rounds two to four, when two names are close, take the one that keeps your options open.
Franco MedinaDesk name · Oct 7, 2026 · 4 min read
Four minutes either way: Nikola Jokić moves two places, Jay Huff moves 105
I re-ranked all 150 players at four minutes more and four minutes fewer than they played last season. The top six barely move. From pick 51 to pick 100, a four-minute miss either way covers a median of about 80 places. Spend your research time there.
Franco MedinaDesk name · Oct 6, 2026 · 4 min read
Draft in bundles: threes and field goal percentage almost never come together
Across 150 players, threes and field goal percentage pull in opposite directions, and only Kawhi Leonard and Kevin Durant are clearly good at both. Rebounds, blocks and field goal percentage travel together, and so do threes and free throws. Pick your bundles early.
Franco MedinaDesk name · Oct 5, 2026 · 4 min read
Stop drafting for position: the 12th center goes 56th, and you still never run short
In a 12-team nine-category league, pricing each pick against the best player left at his position moves nobody more than two places. Two center slots change nothing. Even a 14-team league moves nobody more than four.
Franco MedinaDesk name · Oct 4, 2026 · 4 min read
Points or categories: Giannis Antetokounmpo jumps from 53rd to 7th, Kel'el Ware falls from 47th to 103rd
Score the same 150 players with the standard default points system instead of nine categories and 41 of the top 50 stay put. The nine who leave averaged 29.6 minutes a night. The nine who arrive averaged 32.6, and Giannis leads them.
Franco MedinaDesk name · Oct 3, 2026 · 6 min read
Price the games: Joel Embiid falls from 20th to 31st and Scottie Barnes rises from 12th to 9th
Twelve of the nine-category top 50 played 54 games or fewer. Count the games they missed at the pool average and Embiid drops 11 places. Count them at the pool floor and he drops 30.
Franco MedinaDesk name · Oct 2, 2026 · 6 min read
Punt free throws and assists together: Rudy Gobert climbs from 79th to 9th, and 25 of the 27 big fallers are guards
Give up two categories and the board sorts by position. Fifteen centers and eight forwards rise 15 places or more into the top 60, and the guards who fall do it with 6.0 assists and 86% free throw shooting.
Franco MedinaDesk name · Oct 1, 2026 · 8 min read
Punting blocks keeps Victor Wembanyama in the top 10 and drops Rudy Gobert from 79th to 140th
The best shot blocker in the pool slips only seven places. The centers behind him get no such mercy: 10 of the 14 players who fall 30 places or more are listed at center, and Jalen Brunson climbs 20.
Franco MedinaDesk name · Sep 30, 2026 · 8 min read
Punting points drops Jaylen Brown from 50th to 128th and lifts Donovan Clingan from 27th to 11th
Take points out of nine-cat and the top five do not move. Behind them the board turns over: 14 scorers fall 30 places or more, and the price they pay in turnovers stays on the bill.
Franco MedinaDesk name · Sep 29, 2026 · 8 min read
Punting rebounds makes Shai Gilgeous-Alexander the first pick and drops Rudy Gobert from 79th to 147th
Take rebounds out of nine-cat and the same six players still go first, in a new order. Below them the board turns into a guard draft, and Darius Garland climbs 38 places.
Franco MedinaDesk name · Sep 28, 2026 · 7 min read
Punting threes lifts 11 players who averaged no threes into the top 60 and drops Stephen Curry from 11th to 40th
Every player in the pool who averaged zero threes gains the same amount when the category goes. The volume shooters fall, and Jalen Duren moves into the top ten.
Franco MedinaDesk name · Sep 27, 2026 · 6 min read
Punting field goal percentage drops Giannis from 53rd to 144th and sends six centers down 50 places or more
Remove field goal percentage from a nine-category pool of 150 and the top of the board barely moves. The efficient bigs fall, and volume three-point shooters take their places.
Franco MedinaDesk name · Sep 25, 2026 · 6 min read
Punting steals drops Dyson Daniels 84 places and lifts three low-minute centers into the top 40
Remove steals from a nine-category pool of 150 and the top of the board barely moves. The players built around one number, a high steal rate, fall the furthest.
Franco MedinaDesk name · Sep 24, 2026 · 6 min read
Punting assists drops Josh Giddey from 61st to 146th and Cade Cunningham 53 places
Remove assists from a nine-category pool of 150 and nine of the top 10 hold. The middle of the draft moves: the players who pass fall, and the centers who rarely pass rise.
Franco MedinaDesk name · Sep 23, 2026 · 6 min read
Giannis and Bam Can't Both Be the Center. Bam Loses More Than Giannis Does.
Spoelstra plans to stagger his two bigs so one is always anchoring the middle. Run the minutes through both players' per-36 rates and Bam Adebayo takes the bigger fantasy hit, not Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Franco MedinaDesk name · Sep 22, 2026 · 4 min read
Punting free throws: six of the top ten stay put, and Giannis jumps 46 places
Drop free throw percentage from a nine-category pool of 150 and 43 of the top 50 hold their place in the group. Who rises, who falls, and the minutes arithmetic behind both.
Franco MedinaDesk name · Sep 21, 2026 · 6 min read
Punting turnovers barely moves the top 20, but Deni Avdija jumps 37 places
Remove turnovers from a nine-category pool of 150 and 19 of the top 20 hold. The middle of the draft moves: turnover-heavy scorers and passers rise, low-turnover centers fall.
Franco MedinaDesk name · Sep 21, 2026 · 6 min read
Blocks are scarce, and the players who get them cost you threes
Eleven of the 150 players in a nine-category pool averaged 1.5 blocks or more last season, against eighteen for steals. What that scarcity costs you elsewhere, and two ways to draft around it.
Franco MedinaDesk name · Sep 20, 2026 · 5 min read
A ranking is a z-score in disguise
Preseason fantasy ranks are nine separate judgements compressed into one number, and the compression throws away the part you need. How the list is built, why eight-cat and nine-cat disagree about the same player, and why you should draft tiers instead. The list itself is a click away.
Franco MedinaDesk name · Sep 19, 2026 · 7 min read
Draft the minutes, not the names
Every fantasy projection is a per-minute rate multiplied by a guess about playing time, and the guess is the part everyone skips. A method for building a board for head-to-head or roto, and for pricing rookies, returnees and the players who just changed teams.
Franco MedinaDesk name · Sep 19, 2026 · 9 min read
The nine-cat top 50: Giannis finished 53rd
A category ranking computed from last season's averages rather than remembered, with the method printed and the minutes shown. Giannis Antetokounmpo lands outside the top 50 on one number, and the reason is the most useful thing on this page.
Franco MedinaDesk name · Sep 19, 2026 · 11 min read
Free Minutes is analysis, not advice about money. Nothing here is a betting recommendation, and no projection survives an injury report. Check the late scratches before you set a lineup.