Add Aaron Wiggins, but expect fewer threes

Add Aaron Wiggins in a 12-team categories league if he is on your waiver wire. His minutes are steady, his turnovers are low, and the Hawks have four games next week. His shooting is the part I do not believe, so I have written it down at a lower number and I will show you the arithmetic.

Format: head-to-head categories, nine of them, with a note for points leagues at the end. Data: the Hawks' six games from October 21 to October 29. Six games is a small sample. I trust it for minutes and role. I do not trust it for shooting.

The minutes are the real news

Wiggins played 32, 22, 29, 27, 24 and 24 minutes. That is 158 minutes, or 26.3 a game. He came off the bench every time. The same five Hawks started all six games: Onyeka Okongwu, Jalen Johnson, CJ McCollum, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Dyson Daniels. So his minutes do not depend on one injured starter. That matters more than any single box score.

My minutes assumption is 26. The low end is 22, his smallest game, and the high end is 32, his biggest. If the Hawks get a body back that I am not tracking, or a game turns into a blowout, he can sit at 22. Everything below moves by about 15 percent for four fewer minutes.

The per-minute rates

In 158 minutes he scored 93 points, with 24 rebounds, 12 assists, six steals, two blocks and five turnovers.

• Points: 93 / 158 = 0.59 a minute
• Rebounds: 24 / 158 = 0.15
• Assists: 12 / 158 = 0.08
• Steals: 6 / 158 = 0.04
• Turnovers: 5 / 158 = 0.03
• Threes made: 18 / 158 = 0.11

At 26 minutes that is about 15.3 points, 3.9 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.0 steal and 0.8 turnovers a game. He made 3.0 threes a game. The blocks are 0.3, so ignore that category for him.

The threes are where I stop trusting the sample

He took 39 threes and made 18, which is 46.2%. That is why 0.59 points a minute looks so good. He took 39 threes in 158 minutes. That is 0.25 attempts a minute, or about 6.4 attempts at 26 minutes.

Here is what I assume instead. I use 37% as a round number for a rotation wing. It is my assumption, not a measured league figure.

• At 46.2%, 6.4 attempts is 3.0 made threes a game.
• At 37%, 6.4 attempts is 2.4 made threes a game.

That is 0.6 fewer threes a game, so 1.8 fewer points. His 15.3 points a game becomes 13.6. His field goal percentage moves with it. He is 35 of 68 overall, 51.5%, and removing 0.6 made threes from his 5.8 makes a game leaves 5.2 makes on 11.2 attempts, which is 46%. He is still a useful shooter in that version. He is not the efficient scorer that his first six games suggest.

Thursday's 20 points in 24 minutes, with four threes, pulls the rate up. Without that game he is at 73 points in 134 minutes, 0.54 a minute, and 14 of 32 from three. That is still hot. The point holds either way.

What next week looks like

Atlanta has one game left this week, at New Orleans on Saturday, October 31. In a week that runs Monday to Sunday, the Hawks play four games from November 2 to November 8: at Indiana on Monday, at Washington on Wednesday, home to Washington on Friday and home to Brooklyn on Saturday.

At 26 minutes and my 37% assumption, four games is about 54 points, 9.5 made threes, 15.8 rebounds, 7.9 assists and four steals. At the raw rates it is about 61 points and 11.8 threes. At 22 minutes, take about 15% off those totals.

He is not a category winner. He will not help you in rebounds, assists or blocks. What he does is add threes, points and a steal a game while turning the ball over less than once, and in a nine-category league that is a useful floor.

The other Hawks, and who to skip

Jock Landale plays 15 to 19 minutes every night, 106 in total, and averages 5.7 rebounds. He has made 7 of 12 free throws, which is 58.3%, and he turns the ball over 1.3 times a game. He is a rebounds streamer, not an add, and he costs you free throw percentage.

Luguentz Dort plays 19 to 28 minutes and has made 16 of 45 shots, 35.6%, on 7.5 attempts a game. That costs you field goal percentage, and his 8.2 points and 0.7 steals a game do not make up for it in my view. I would skip him.

What to do

• 12-team categories: add Wiggins at the 26-minute line, and plan on 2.4 threes a game, not 3.0.
• Points leagues: add him as well. At 0.8 turnovers a game he is a safe pickup even if your league subtracts for them.
• Who to drop: a bench player who is averaging under 15 minutes. Do not drop a starter to make room.
• Skip: Landale for the free throws, Dort for the shooting.

Wiggins scored 20 points in the Hawks' 114-111 win over the Cavaliers on Thursday, and that game is in the numbers above.