Add Wagler in 12-team categories: the free throws changed it

Add Keaton Wagler in a 12-team categories league. A week ago I told you to wait for his first two games before deciding on the shooting. He has played three. The shooting is still not good, and I am adding him anyway. Here is the arithmetic that changed my mind.

Format: head-to-head categories, with a note for points leagues at the end. Data: the Clippers' three games, October 21, 23 and 25. Three games is a small sample, so I use it for minutes and for the shape of his usage, not for skill.

The minutes are real, and they are bench minutes

Wagler played 29, 24 and 26 minutes. He did not start any of the three. My assumption in the preseason piece was 28 minutes a game as a starter, and that was wrong in the detail and right in the total: he is at 26.3 a game off the bench.

My minutes assumption for this week is 26. The Clippers are still without Brandon Ingram, Max Strus, Bradley Beal, Yanic Konan Niederhauser and Jordan Miller, all five listed out. If one of the wings comes back this week, cut the assumption to 20 and everything below falls by about a quarter.

The per-minute rates

In 79 minutes he scored 39 points, with 13 rebounds, 12 assists, four steals and nine turnovers.

• Points: 39 / 79 = 0.49 a minute
• Rebounds: 13 / 79 = 0.16
• Assists: 12 / 79 = 0.15
• Steals: 4 / 79 = 0.05
• Turnovers: 9 / 79 = 0.11

At 26 minutes that is about 12.8 points, 4.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.3 steals and 3.0 turnovers a game. The Clippers play three times this week, so about 38 points, 13 rebounds and 12 assists for the week. At 20 minutes it is about 9.9 points a game and 30 for the week. At 30 it is 14.8 and 44.

The free throws are the new fact

He made 17 of 19 free throws in three games. That is 6.3 attempts a game from a bench rookie, and 89.5% on them.

That matters twice in categories. It wins you free throw percentage outright, and it is volume, so it moves the category rather than decorating it. In the preseason he went 10 of 13. The line is now 27 of 32 across six games of basketball, preseason included, which is a real pattern rather than one hot night.

The field goal percentage is still the price

He made 8 of 23 shots, 34.8%, on 7.7 attempts a game. From three he made 6 of 15, 40%, on five attempts a game, up from 25% in the preseason. Fifteen attempts is nowhere near enough to call that fixed.

Here is the cost, with a round number for comparison rather than a measured one. Take a hypothetical wing who shoots 46% and give him Wagler's 7.7 attempts a game: he makes 3.5. Wagler makes 2.7. You are paying about eight tenths of a make a game, in a category where your team total is a few hundred attempts a week.

So the trade is: you take a hit in field goal percentage, and in exchange you get threes, free throw percentage with volume, a steal a game and four assists from a wing. In a 12-team categories league where you are not already punting field goal percentage, that is a trade worth making. If field goal percentage is a category you win narrowly, it is not.

Points leagues: he was already an add last week and nothing here argues against it. Nine turnovers in three games is three a game, and a points format that subtracts for turnovers takes that straight off the total.

Baba Miller is off the watch list

I put Baba Miller on your watch list last week on a rate of 0.60 points a minute in the preseason. He played nine minutes in the opener, did not play in the second game and played two minutes in the third. Drop him from the list. The minutes did not come, and a rate without minutes is not a projection.

The other name: Daniss Jenkins

Daniss Jenkins played 15 minutes, then 22, then 38 with his first start on Sunday. In 75 minutes he has 36 points, 15 rebounds and 14 assists, on 12 of 22 shooting and 5 of 7 from three.

The rates are 0.48 points, 0.20 rebounds and 0.19 assists a minute. At 30 minutes that is about 14 points, 6 rebounds and 5.6 assists. At 22 it is 10.6, 4.4 and 4.1.

Now the warning, and it is the whole story. Detroit played Sunday without Jalen Duren, out with a hamstring strain, and Ausar Thompson, out with an ankle, and Isaiah Joe is day to day. Jenkins' 38 minutes are borrowed from those three. Add him if you have an open spot, and set your expectation at the 22-minute line, not the 38. The Pistons play three times this week: at New York on Tuesday, Charlotte on Wednesday and at Brooklyn on Friday.

What to do

• 12-team categories: add Wagler, unless field goal percentage is the category you win on.
• Points leagues: add Wagler if you somehow have not.
• Open spot going spare: add Jenkins at the 22-minute expectation, and re-check it when Duren and Thompson are back.
• Drop: Baba Miller from your watch list.