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28 of the top 150 changed teams: draft them at their four-minutes-fewer rank, except Kawhi Leonard

I checked all 150 players in our pool against the NBA rosters of October 10. Twenty-eight are on new teams. In the first four rounds, the movers swing a median 58 places on a four-minute minutes miss, against 36 for players who stayed. Leonard holds at sixth. Kel'el Ware falls 60.

By Franco MedinaDesk name · October 10, 2026 · 5 min read

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Photo: U.S. Marine Corps photo by Lance Cpl. Mhecaela J. Watts / Wikimedia Commons (Public domain)

The rule for the players who changed teams this summer: rank them where they land at four minutes fewer than last season, and take them there. Their value is built on minutes they played for a different coach, next to different teammates. None of them has played a regular-season minute for the new team yet. If they beat that number, you got a bargain. If they do not, you did not overpay.

Format: head-to-head nine-category or roto, 12 teams. Pool: the same 150 players as our recent columns. Minutes: every value is a 2025-26 per-game z-score at that player's own minutes. A z-score is how far a player sits above or below the pool average in one category, and the nine are added up. For the ranges, I scaled every stat in proportion to four minutes fewer and four minutes more, the method from our four-minutes column. Games missed are not priced in.

How I found the movers

I took each player's 2025-26 team, or both teams for a player traded during the season. Then I compared it with the roster each player is on today, October 10. Twenty-eight of the 150 are on a different team. Seven of them sit in our top 50, 11 between 51 and 100, and 10 between 101 and 150.

The 28, with their ranges

Rank Player Last season Now Minutes At 4 fewer At 4 more
4 Kawhi Leonard Clippers Raptors 32.1 6 3
30 Paul George 76ers Celtics 30.7 60 15
40 LaMelo Ball Hornets Timberwolves 28.0 84 21
44 LeBron James Lakers 76ers 33.2 79 24
46 Tyler Herro Heat Bucks 31.3 84 24
47 Kel'el Ware Heat Bucks 22.1 107 20
50 Jaylen Brown Celtics 76ers 34.4 84 26
53 Giannis Antetokounmpo Bucks Heat 28.9 96 26
56 Nikola Vučević Bulls and Celtics Magic 28.4 102 30
67 Brandon Ingram Raptors Clippers 33.8 106 37
70 Grayson Allen Suns Hornets 28.8 118 37
71 Naz Reid Timberwolves Hornets 26.1 126 36
72 DeMar DeRozan Kings Nuggets 31.2 115 40
75 Norman Powell Heat Bulls 29.6 119 41
81 Julius Randle Timberwolves Nets 33.0 119 47
87 Deandre Ayton Lakers Wizards 27.2 141 52
93 Kelly Oubre Jr. 76ers Pacers 31.5 141 61
100 Santi Aldama Grizzlies Mavericks 27.9 149 62
101 John Collins Clippers Pistons 27.1 150th 61
103 Tobias Harris Pistons Spurs 27.7 150th 62
107 Peyton Watson Nuggets Cavaliers 29.6 150th 68
108 Miles Bridges Hornets Suns 31.0 150th 68
117 Royce O'Neale Suns Hornets 28.4 150th 75
128 Sandro Mamukelashvili Raptors Lakers 21.9 150th 73
133 Bobby Portis Bucks Heat 24.2 150th 86
135 Nic Claxton Nets Bulls 27.8 150th 89
141 Jerami Grant Trail Blazers Grizzlies 29.7 150th 97
150 Bennedict Mathurin Pacers and Clippers Pelicans 30.0 150th 111

"At 4 fewer" and "At 4 more" are the player's rank in the 150 at that many minutes. "150th" means the bottom of the pool.

What the numbers show

  • In the early rounds, the movers are also the most minutes-sensitive players. In our top 50, the seven movers swing a median 58 places between four minutes fewer and four minutes more. The 43 players who stayed swing a median 36. The move does not cause that. It means that in the top 50, the players with a new team's minutes still to learn are also the ones whose rank moves more when minutes change.
  • From 51 to 100, the movers are no more sensitive than anyone else. Movers swing a median 78 places, and players who stayed swing 79. In that range a minutes guess is shaky for nearly everyone, new team or not.
  • Kawhi Leonard is the exception. Fourth on the board, sixth at four minutes fewer, third at four more. Draft Leonard where the board says.
  • Kel'el Ware falls the furthest. At last season's 22.1 minutes a night, Ware is 47th. At 18.1, Ware is 107th, a drop of 60 places. Naz Reid drops 55 and Deandre Ayton drops 54.

Crowded rosters

Four teams now carry seven of our 150 players each: Orlando, Cleveland, San Antonio and Charlotte. Last season, by the same count, only two did, Minnesota and Phoenix. Charlotte took three of the movers: Grayson Allen, Reid and Royce O'Neale.

A team has 240 minutes a night to share. Orlando's seven played 213.5 minutes a night between them last season. That is close to the 214.8 of Minnesota's seven, the most of any team last season, so it can be done. But it leaves little room for anyone else, and if a rookie or a bench player earns minutes, they come out of those seven.

The games are a separate risk

These ranges price minutes, not missed games. Three of the seven top-50 movers played fewer than 40 games last season: Paul George 37, Giannis Antetokounmpo 36 and Tyler Herro 33. Our games missed column prices that separately. A new team does not change either number until the games are played.

What to do with it

  • For a mover in your first four rounds, use the "At 4 fewer" column as the price. George at 60, LaMelo Ball at 84, LeBron James at 79, Jaylen Brown at 84.
  • Take Leonard at the normal rank. Leonard's value barely moves either way.
  • From pick 51 on, treat movers like everyone else. The range is wide for all of them.
  • In the four crowded rosters, check camp reports. If a coach names a starter or a rotation, update the minutes and the rank with it.
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Franco MedinaDesk name, Free Minutes. Every projection here starts from per-minute production and a stated minutes assumption. Where the minutes are a guess, the piece says so.

Written for Hoopspire by Franco Medina. Spotted an error? Tell us — corrections make the ledger better.

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