Our 2026-27 NBA projection: Spurs over Knicks in the Finals, Thunder and Pistons top the standings

The defending champion does not have the strongest statistical case to repeat this season. New York won the 2026 title, beating San Antonio 4-1 in the Finals after finishing third in the East at 53-29, and kept its starting five together. San Antonio won 62 games and reached the Finals, and Victor Wembanyama is entering his fourth season. Oklahoma City won 64 and lost to the Spurs in the Western Conference finals.

Around those three, a lot moved. Giannis Antetokounmpo is in Miami. Jaylen Brown and LeBron James are both in Philadelphia. LaMelo Ball went to Minnesota, Ja Morant to Portland, Paul George to Boston, and Kawhi Leonard back to Toronto. Kevin Durant stayed in Houston, and the Rockets added Marcus Smart and Bogdan Bogdanović.

So the question for every team below is the same: can the new roster turn its talent into efficient possessions for 82 games, and then hold up against one specific opponent in a seven-game series?

How we built it

This is our own forecast, not a betting line. It starts from each team's 2025-26 numbers: wins, offensive and defensive rating, net rating, pace, shooting efficiency, turnover rate, rebounding and playoff results. We then adjust that baseline with these weights:

Factor	Weight
Previous-season team efficiency	35%
Returning player value and continuity	20%
Offseason roster changes	20%
Development and aging	15%
Availability and structural risk	10%

A new star does not simply add his old scoring average to his new team. His shots come out of possessions a teammate used to take, he changes who stands where, and a high-usage player can bring turnovers with him. The same goes for defense: one good defender does not make a good team defense. Those adjustments do the most work for Philadelphia, Miami, Minnesota and Boston.

Projected standings

Eastern Conference

Seed	Team	Projected record	Division
1	Detroit Pistons	56-26	Central
2	New York Knicks	55-27	Atlantic
3	Philadelphia 76ers	51-31	Atlantic
4	Cleveland Cavaliers	48-34	Central
5	Miami Heat	47-35	Southeast
6	Orlando Magic	46-36	Southeast
7	Atlanta Hawks	44-38	Southeast
8	Toronto Raptors	43-39	Atlantic
9	Boston Celtics	41-41	Atlantic
10	Charlotte Hornets	40-42	Southeast
11	Indiana Pacers	38-44	Central
12	Milwaukee Bucks	30-52	Central
13	Chicago Bulls	28-54	Central
14	Brooklyn Nets	27-55	Atlantic
15	Washington Wizards	24-58	Southeast

Western Conference

Seed	Team	Projected record	Division
1	Oklahoma City Thunder	58-24	Northwest
2	San Antonio Spurs	57-25	Southwest
3	Houston Rockets	52-30	Southwest
4	Denver Nuggets	50-32	Northwest
5	Minnesota Timberwolves	49-33	Northwest
6	Los Angeles Lakers	47-35	Pacific
7	Portland Trail Blazers	44-38	Northwest
8	Phoenix Suns	42-40	Pacific
9	Dallas Mavericks	40-42	Southwest
10	LA Clippers	38-44	Pacific
11	Golden State Warriors	36-46	Pacific
12	Sacramento Kings	29-53	Pacific
13	Memphis Grizzlies	27-55	Southwest
14	Utah Jazz	23-59	Northwest
15	New Orleans Pelicans	20-62	Southwest

The 30 win totals add up to 1,230, one for every game on the schedule.

The divisions

Atlantic: New York, 55-27. This is a continuity pick. Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Josh Hart and Karl-Anthony Towns are all back. Mitchell Robinson left for Boston and Andre Drummond came in as backup center. Last season's Knicks had a 118.7 offensive rating and a plus-6.4 net rating, then won 13 straight in the playoffs. Their offense has already shown it works in May and June, and that counts for more in our numbers than two or three extra regular-season wins would.

Central: Detroit, 56-26. The Pistons won 60 games last season with a 117.3 offensive rating and a plus-8.4 net rating, and Cade Cunningham averaged 23.9 points, 9.9 assists and 5.5 rebounds. They swapped Tobias Harris and Caris LeVert for John Collins and Isaiah Joe and added veteran depth, so the core is intact. We have them a few wins lower because a 60-win season usually carries some luck, and the open question is how efficient Cunningham stays when playoff defenses send everything at him.

Southeast: Miami, 47-35. One trade changed this division. Miami sent Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kel'el Ware and draft picks to Milwaukee for Antetokounmpo, and now pairs him with Bam Adebayo. Expect more rim pressure and more free throws, with less spacing. We are not worried about Giannis's own numbers. We are less sure Miami can put enough shooting around two interior players without giving up the defense that has always carried the Heat.

Northwest: Oklahoma City, 58-24. The Thunder won 64 games and have outscored opponents by 11.2 points a game over the last two seasons, playoffs included. Nobody doubts the regular season. San Antonio is the problem: the Spurs beat Oklahoma City in eight of their 12 meetings last season, the last of them Game 7 of the conference finals. The Thunder get our best record in the West, and the Spurs get the edge if the two meet in a series.

Pacific: Los Angeles Lakers, 47-35. This division lost the most veteran talent. LeBron went to Philadelphia, Leonard to Toronto and DeMar DeRozan from Sacramento to Denver. The Lakers kept Luka Dončić and added Quentin Grimes, Jaden Hardy, Walker Kessler, Kevon Looney, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Collin Sexton and Matisse Thybulle. Dončić's creation should keep them above the play-in line. Their defense is the number we are least confident in.

Southwest: San Antonio, 57-25. The Spurs went 62-20, Wembanyama was Defensive Player of the Year with an MVP-level season, and they added Tobias Harris and more young size. We project a small offensive step from Wembanyama and Dylan Harper on top of an elite defense. San Antonio does not need a big leap, only to fix what went wrong offensively against New York in the Finals.

The play-in

In the East, we have Atlanta and Toronto in the 7 and 8 spots. The Hawks won 46 games last season and added Luguentz Dort and Aaron Wiggins around Jalen Johnson. Their trouble last year was getting stops, so the two defenders matter more than any scorer would have. Boston beats Charlotte in the 9-10 game and then loses at Toronto.

In the West, Portland takes the 7 seed after adding Morant to a 42-40 team. Dallas beats the Clippers in the 9-10 game and then loses to Phoenix for the 8 seed. Cooper Flagg's second year keeps the Mavericks competitive, but we do not see a 26-56 team turning all the way around in one season.

First round

East

• (1) Detroit over (8) Toronto, 4-2. Toronto's length causes problems, but Detroit's half-court creation and offensive rebounding wear it down.
• (2) New York over (7) Atlanta, 4-2. Johnson can hurt New York's bench in transition. The Knicks have more ways to get a good shot late in close games.
• (3) Philadelphia over (6) Orlando, 4-3. Our most uncertain East series. Tyrese Maxey, Brown, Joel Embiid and LeBron are four players used to running the offense, and it is not yet clear the shots get shared in a way that produces efficiency rather than volume.
• (5) Miami over (4) Cleveland, 4-3. The Cavaliers can guard Giannis one-on-one. The trouble is what happens after their help arrives. If Miami turns his drives into corner threes and second attacks, Cleveland runs out of good choices.

West

• (1) Oklahoma City over (8) Phoenix, 4-1. Phoenix can make enough shots to steal one. The Thunder's ball pressure creates too many extra possessions.
• (2) San Antonio over (7) Portland, 4-1. Morant pushes the pace, and Wembanyama at the rim takes much of the value out of those drives.
• (3) Houston over (6) Lakers, 4-2. Houston's size and defensive rebounding suit this matchup against a team that leans so hard on Dončić.
• (4) Denver over (5) Minnesota, 4-3. The Wolves' new Anthony Edwards and Ball backcourt is a different team from last season, and Ball was brought in to fix a point guard problem that has lasted years. We still trust Nikola Jokić more than anyone in a half-court game.

Conference semifinals

• Detroit over Miami, 4-3. Detroit is deeper. Giannis makes every game hard. It comes down to whether the Pistons can push Miami into enough jump shots.
• New York over Philadelphia, 4-2. Philadelphia has more famous names. New York has a clearer order of who takes the shot, and its offense has already won in the playoffs while the 76ers are still sorting out how four creators split the ball.
• Oklahoma City over Denver, 4-2. Jokić is the hardest player in the league to stop in the half court, but the Thunder's perimeter defense and transition game should get them more possessions than Denver can afford.
• San Antonio over Houston, 4-2. Houston can defend, but Wembanyama affects shots at the rim and on the perimeter, and one defender cannot take away both.

Conference finals

East: New York over Detroit, 4-3. Detroit has the better regular-season projection. New York has the better record in close games when it counts. The 2026 Knicks won four straight against San Antonio, several of them from behind, Brunson averaged 32.6 points in the Finals, and their run ended with a postseason record plus-283 point differential. We do not assume comebacks repeat at that rate. We do assume the parts that made them possible, Brunson's late-clock creation and a defense that switches everything, are still there.

West: San Antonio over Oklahoma City, 4-3. Oklahoma City wins more games in our regular season, and San Antonio wins the series. Both can be true. The Spurs won eight of 12 meetings last season, the conference finals included, so the Thunder's better overall numbers run into a matchup that has already decided a series once. Oklahoma City has to find good shots away from Wembanyama, and we do not think it will find enough of them.

The 2027 Finals: Spurs over Knicks, 4-2

New York has already beaten this San Antonio team. The Spurs now have another year of Wembanyama, another year of Harper and a full offseason to build around the most disruptive defender in the league.

The two offenses work differently. New York runs through Brunson in the half court, Towns's shooting and inside scoring, and a group of wings who can guard and shoot. San Antonio's offense starts with what Wembanyama does to a defense just by being on the floor. He scores inside and out, creates mismatches and changes which shots opponents are willing to take. We have the Spurs winning the possession battle on defensive rebounding and rim protection, and scoring just efficiently enough to avoid the cold stretches that cost them last June.

Champion: San Antonio. Finals MVP: Victor Wembanyama.

Awards

Award	Pick	Why
MVP	Victor Wembanyama, Spurs	Two-way impact on a top-two team
Defensive Player of the Year	Victor Wembanyama, Spurs	Rim protection nobody else matches
Rookie of the Year	AJ Dybantsa, Wizards	No. 1 pick with the biggest workload
Most Improved	Amen Thompson, Rockets	Creation and shooting growth on a 52-win team
Sixth Man	Keldon Johnson, Spurs	Proven scorer in a deep rotation
Coach of the Year	Mitch Johnson, Spurs	57 projected wins and a return to the Finals
Clutch Player	Jalen Brunson, Knicks	Reigning Finals MVP and the best late-clock creator
Executive of the Year	Masai Ujiri, Mavericks	Assumes Dallas's young core takes a real step

The rookie race looks wide open. Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer and Caleb Wilson went in the top four, and Dybantsa gets our pick mostly because Washington will give him more of the ball than anyone else's team will. Opportunity decides a lot of rookie awards.

All-NBA

First team: Wembanyama, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jokić, Brunson, Dončić. The first three are the easiest calls: Gilgeous-Alexander is the two-time reigning MVP, and Wembanyama and Jokić were the other two finalists last season. Brunson's case rests on New York's seed and his role as its main creator. Dončić's depends on how many games he plays and whether the Lakers' offense is efficient, not just busy.

Second team: Edwards, Cunningham, Antetokounmpo, Jayson Tatum, Embiid. Cunningham's case goes as Detroit's 56 wins go. Embiid is the biggest availability question in the group, and Philadelphia's ceiling depends on how often its stars are healthy at the same time.

Third team: Maxey, Durant, Jalen Williams, Anthony Davis, Towns. Williams has the widest range of anyone on our list because he played only 33 games last season. A full year from him raises Oklahoma City's ceiling a great deal.

Five questions that decide the season

Can San Antonio turn defense into offense? The Spurs need Wembanyama's presence to produce worse shots for opponents, more defensive rebounds and more transition chances. If that happens night after night, they can have an elite offense without shooting at a historic rate.

Can Philadelphia make four creators fit? Maxey, Brown, James and Embiid can all run an offense, which is an asset until there are not enough possessions to go around. The number to watch is the team's offensive rating when all four are on the floor. If it is good and the turnovers stay down, 51 wins is too low.

Can Minnesota make Ball's passing efficient? The Wolves have to settle who brings it up, where Edwards gets the ball and how much of Ball's risk-taking holds up against playoff defenses.

Can Miami shoot well enough around Giannis? The chain is simple: he gets to the rim, the help comes, someone is open outside, and that someone has to make it. If the last step works, Miami's offense takes off. If it does not, defenses will pack the paint.

Can Oklahoma City solve San Antonio? The Thunder have the depth and efficiency to finish first. The Spurs have already won the matchup that mattered. The October 20 opener between them is the first real evidence on the West's biggest question.

Widest ranges

• Philadelphia, 51 wins (range about 43-57). Too talented to project low, too complicated to project with confidence.
• Minnesota, 49 wins (about 43-54). Ball could fix the half-court offense or add turnovers.
• Miami, 47 wins (about 41-54). No acquisition raised a ceiling more than Giannis.
• Dallas, 40 wins (about 33-47). Flagg averaged 21.0 points, 6.7 rebounds and 4.5 assists as a rookie. A second-year jump plus Kyrie Irving's return could move this a lot.
• Boston, 41 wins (about 35-48). Tatum's return from his Achilles injury is the variable. Boston also replaced Brown with George and added Robinson.

Players who could break the forecast

• Wembanyama: a bigger offensive jump could push San Antonio toward 65 wins.
• Jalen Williams: a healthy season changes what Oklahoma City's offense can be.
• Flagg: a second-year leap would make Dallas a real playoff team.
• Amen Thompson: if his creation and shooting both improve, Houston gets much harder to beat.
• Dybantsa: if he is efficient right away, Washington beats its projection.
• Peterson: Utah's rebuild gives him all the shots he wants.
• Boozer: Memphis traded Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr., which leaves its rookie a large share of the offense.

The tiers

Our numbers sort the league into four groups. San Antonio, Oklahoma City and New York can win the title. Detroit, Philadelphia, Houston and Denver can win a conference. Minnesota, Miami, Cleveland, Orlando, Atlanta, the Lakers and Portland are playoff teams with wide ranges. Dallas, Charlotte, Memphis and Washington are young teams that could move a long way in either direction.

The split that matters most is between regular-season strength and playoff matchups. Oklahoma City and Detroit have the best projected records in their conferences. San Antonio and New York have the profiles we trust most in a series.

The season starts on October 20, with Philadelphia at the Knicks and Oklahoma City at San Antonio. Those two games test our two biggest assumptions right away: that Philadelphia's four creators can share one offense, and that the Thunder still have no answer for the Spurs. We will update the forecast as the games come in, and we will say plainly which of these calls were wrong.