The Hoopspire Top 32 for 2026-27: Florida start first because they kept their team

Florida played 79% of their 2025-26 regular-season minutes with players who are on the 2026-27 roster. No other team that finished in last season's BPI top 10 returns more than 57%. That one number puts the Gators first in the Hoopspire Top 32.

This is our own preseason ranking, published before the first game. It is not a poll, and nobody votes. Every team is rated by the Hoopspire model, which looks at how strong a team was last season and who is on its roster now, transfers included, and applies the same rules to all 365 Division I teams.

Last season's measure of strength is ESPN's final 2025-26 Basketball Power Index (BPI): the expected point margin per 70 possessions against an average Division I team on a neutral court. Duke and Michigan finished at 24.9, the best in the country. An average team is 0.

How to read the list: the Hoopspire rating is on BPI's scale. "Returning" is the share of last season's regular-season minutes played by players still on the roster. Points per game are 2025-26 regular-season averages. Rosters are ESPN's as of October 22.

The Top 32

1. Florida (rating 20.9; last season 27-8, BPI 5th). The core is back: Thomas Haugh (17.1 points), Alex Condon (15.0), Boogie Fland and Rueben Chinyelu. Denzel Aberdeen arrives from Kentucky. Returning: 79%.

2. Duke (17.3; 35-3, BPI 1st). Duke lose more than half of their minutes, but John Blackwell, who averaged 19.0 at Wisconsin, is the highest-scoring transfer on any of the top five rosters. Caleb Foster and Cayden Boozer are back. Returning: 44%.

3. Illinois (16.6; 28-9, BPI 6th). A top-10 team that keeps most of its rotation: David Mirkovic, Andrej Stojakovic and Tomislav Ivisic return, and Stefan Vaaks (15.8 at Providence) joins. Returning: 57%.

4. Michigan (16.3; 37-3, BPI 2nd). Last season's team was one of the two best in the country, and that still counts. Elliot Cadeau and Trey McKenney return; Kenny Noland (17.1 at Columbia) and Moustapha Thiam (Cincinnati) arrive. Returning: 35%. Cadeau is also the subject of our Heritage Line piece on Sweden.

5. Arizona (14.7; 36-3, BPI 3rd). Ivan Kharchenkov and Motiejus Krivas return, with RJ Godfrey from Clemson and Derek Dixon from North Carolina. More of Arizona's minutes go to newcomers without college records than any other team in the top 10. Returning: 27%.

6. Iowa State (14.7; 29-8, BPI 7th). Tamin Lipsey returns, and the Cyclones restocked from mid-majors: Ryan Prather Jr. (Robert Morris), Leon Bond III (Northern Iowa) and Jaquan Johnson (17.1 at Bradley). Every minute on the roster comes from a player with Division I experience. Returning: 52%.

7. Gonzaga (14.2; 31-4, BPI 9th). Almost a new team: Javon Bennett (16.2 at Dayton), Massamba Diop (Arizona State), Xaivian Lee (Florida) and Chauncey Wiggins (Florida State). Braden Huff, 17.8 a game, returns. Returning: 14%.

8. UConn (13.8; 34-6, BPI 10th). Solo Ball and Silas Demary Jr. return, and Nils Machowski scored 17.2 a game at Wofford. Returning: 47%.

9. Louisville (13.8; 24-11, BPI 12th). The biggest rebuild in the top 10, built on transfers: Flory Bidunga from Kansas, De'Shayne Montgomery from Dayton, LJ Wells from Northern Kentucky and Seth Trimble from North Carolina. Returning: 11%.

10. Michigan State (13.7; 27-8, BPI 13th). Continuity: Jeremy Fears Jr. (15.7) and Coen Carr return, with Anton Bonke added from Charlotte. Returning: 60%, second only to Florida in the top 10.

11. Vanderbilt (13.3; 27-9, BPI 16th). Tyler Tanner returns after averaging 19.1, and Ace Glass scored 16.4 at Washington State. Returning: 25%.

12. BYU (13.1; 23-12, BPI 19th). Robert Wright III (18.2) leads the returners. Jaxon Kohler (Michigan State) and Collin Chandler (Kentucky) come from top-25 BPI teams. Returning: 27%.

13. UCLA (12.8; 24-12, BPI 26th). Trent Perry and Eric Dailey Jr. return, and Jaylen Petty (Texas Tech) and Filip Jovic (Auburn) come from teams that were rated higher than UCLA last season. Returning: 47%.

14. Purdue (12.7; 30-9, BPI 8th). The hardest team on the list to read. C.J. Cox is the most-used returner, and only 42% of a season's minutes can be filled by players with college records. Purdue could finish well away from 14th, in either direction. Returning: 42%.

15. St. John's (12.7; 30-7, BPI 15th). Three transfers who all scored at least 16 a game last season: Keyshawn Hall (19.8 at Auburn), Tounde Yessoufou (17.8 at Baylor) and Donnie Freeman (16.5 at Syracuse). Returning: 18%.

16. Alabama (12.4; 25-10, BPI 14th). Aden Holloway (16.8) and Amari Allen return, and Drew Fielder scored 14.7 at Boise State. Returning: 34%.

17. Oklahoma (12.4; 21-16, BPI 38th). The biggest climber in the 32. Xzayvier Brown (15.3) and Derrion Reid return, and Duke Brennan (Villanova) and B.J. Edwards (SMU) arrive. Returning: 39%.

18. Houston (12.3; 30-7, BPI 4th). Houston return 23% of their minutes. Corey Hadnot II scored 20.4 at Purdue Fort Wayne and Delrecco Gillespie 18.1 at Kent State, but on teams far below Houston's level, and our model gives that context weight. Houston could well be better than 18th.

19. Iowa (12.2; 24-13, BPI 25th). Cooper Koch and Kael Combs return, with Andrew McKeever from Saint Mary's. A deep, experienced group rather than a star-led one. Returning: 56%.

20. Texas Tech (12.2; 23-11, BPI 21st). JT Toppin, who averaged 21.8, is back. Cruz Davis (20.2 at Hofstra) and Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn (20.7 at UNLV) join him. Returning: 35%.

21. Virginia (11.7; 30-6, BPI 20th). Thijs De Ridder (15.5) and Sam Lewis return. Jurian Dixon (UC Irvine) and Christian Harmon (Arkansas State) add scoring. Returning: 51%.

22. Wisconsin (11.6; 24-11, BPI 24th). Blackwell left for Duke. Nolan Winter (13.3) and Austin Rapp return, and Eian Elmer joins from Miami (Ohio). Returning: 45%.

23. Kentucky (11.5; 22-14, BPI 23rd). Milan Momcilovic, from Iowa State, heads a roster built mostly from transfers, with Zoom Diallo (Washington) and Alex Wilkins (Furman). Returning: 22%.

24. Nebraska (11.4; 28-7, BPI 17th). Pryce Sandfort (17.8) returns, with Trevan Leonhardt (Utah Valley) and Boden Kapke (Boston College) added. Returning: 40%.

25. Texas (11.2; 21-15, BPI 30th). Matas Vokietaitis returns, and Isaiah Johnson (16.9 at Colorado), David Punch (TCU) and Mikey Lewis (Saint Mary's) arrive. Returning: 13%.

26. Saint Louis (11.1; 29-6, BPI 33rd). Quentin Jones and Trey Green lead a group that returns 59% of its minutes, the third-highest share in the 32.

27. Tennessee (10.3; 25-12, BPI 11th). The biggest faller in the 32. Tennessee return 10% of their minutes, the fewest of any team here. Juke Harris (21.3 at Wake Forest) and Dai Dai Ames (17.2 at California) lead a new roster.

28. Ohio State (10.3; 21-13, BPI 27th). John Mobley Jr. (15.7) returns, and Jimmie Williams (Duquesne) and Justin Pippen (California) join. Returning: 33%.

29. Georgia (10.3; 22-11, BPI 37th). Blue Cain and Marcus Millender return, and Freddie Dilione V comes from Penn State. Returning: 44%.

30. Indiana (10.2; 18-14, BPI 36th). A rebuilt rotation of transfers: Samet Yigitoglu (SMU), Bryce Lindsay (Villanova), Jaeden Mustaf (Georgia Tech) and Aiden Sherrell (Alabama). Returning: 17%.

31. Miami (10.1; 26-9, BPI 39th). Malik Reneau, 18.8 a game, and Shelton Henderson return. Brent Bland (Saint Peter's) and Acaden Lewis (Villanova) join. Returning: 42%.

32. Auburn (10.1; 22-16, BPI 28th). Tahaad Pettiford (15.5) and Kevin Overton return, and Adam Olsen scored 16.7 at South Alabama. Returning: 34%.

The bubble

33. Texas A&M
34. West Virginia
35. Villanova
36. NC State
37. Clemson
38. Missouri
39. Utah State
40. Saint Mary's
41. Washington
42. SMU

What this list does not say

It does not know how good a freshman is, because a freshman has no college minutes to measure. Purdue, Arizona and Alabama lean most on newcomers in the 32. Those are the teams most likely to be wrong in either direction.

It does not know about injuries or eligibility rulings after October 22, the date of the rosters we used.

A great player who spent last season on a weak team is probably underrated here.

It is a starting point, not a prediction of March.

The check to run next

We will test the model against how last season's preseason rosters actually finished, and tune it before the next edition. The first in-season update comes after the opening weeks, when every team has real 2026-27 minutes to measure.

Update: our No. 1 lost an exhibition in overtime. Baylor beat Florida 82-76 in Jacksonville.