Seattle outscored Indiana by 12 from the field and lost by 3

Take the free throws out of Indiana's 110-107 win over Seattle on July 17 and the Storm win the game 94-82. Seattle scored 43 field goals to Indiana's 36 and shot 56.6% from the field to the Fever's 50.0%. It lost because Indiana made 28 free throws and Seattle made 13.

Every number below comes from the box score and play-by-play for this game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Possessions are our estimate from the box score, since they are not published.

Where the 15 points came from

	Indiana	Seattle
Field goals	36 of 72 (50.0%)	43 of 76 (56.6%)
Three-pointers	10 of 23	8 of 21
Free throws	28 of 31 (90.3%)	13 of 18 (72.2%)
Points from field goals	82	94
Points from free throws	28	13
Total	110	107
Fouls committed	17	24
Turnovers (total, incl. one team turnover each)	13	18

Seattle was 12 points better from the field (94 to 82). Indiana was 15 points better from the line (28 to 13). Fifteen minus twelve is Indiana's three-point win.

Two things make up the 15. Indiana attempted 13 more free throws. At Seattle's own 72.2% rate, that is about 9 points. The rest, about 6, is Indiana shooting 90.3% on its 31 attempts instead of 72.2%. We can't say from one game how much of either is repeatable. Thirty-one attempts is a small sample for a percentage.

We also make no claim about whether the fouls were called correctly. The box score shows Seattle committed 24 fouls to Indiana's 17, and that is all it shows.

Who shot them

Caitlin Clark scored 45 points in 29 minutes: 11 of 18 from the field, 6 of 10 on threes, and 17 of 19 at the line. Her 19 free-throw attempts were one more than Seattle's whole team (18). For the season she shoots 84.2% at the line, so 89.5% here is above her usual mark, but not by much for a night of 19 shots.

Indiana's other free throws were 11 of 12. Two of Clark's trips were three-shot trips, at 8:54 of the second quarter and 7:01 of the third, and she made all six.

She was not the only large scorer. Kelsey Mitchell added 30 points on 13-of-25 shooting. Together they scored 75 of Indiana's 110.

For Seattle, Dominique Malonga scored 28 on 13-of-22 shooting with 14 rebounds and six turnovers. Awa Fam, Natisha Hiedeman, Flau'jae Johnson and Jade Melbourne each scored between 15 and 16. Seattle got a lot from a lot of people. Its team offense in this game was about 122.6 points per 100 possessions, against a season figure of 98.0, the second-lowest in the league. The same estimate for Indiana is 126.0. It was a fast game: about 87 possessions, against a league average of 83.1.

How the game turned

Indiana opened with 37 points in the first quarter and led by as many as 17. Seattle came back with 30 and 32 in the middle two quarters and led 88-82 going into the fourth. Seattle led from 2:48 of the third quarter until the final minute, apart from that last tie.

The quarter scores:

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Indiana	37	22	23	28	110
Seattle	26	30	32	19	107

Two quarters show the pattern. In the second, Indiana made only 5 field goals but scored 22 points, because it went 10 of 11 at the line, 8 of 9 by Clark. In the fourth, Seattle made 8 field goals, after making 13 in each of the second and third, and turned the ball over six times to Indiana's two.

Seattle led 102-99 with 1:24 left. Monique Billings scored on a layup and was fouled, and her free throw tied it at 102 with 1:11 left. Clark then hit a 25-foot step-back three with 39.1 seconds left, Indiana's first lead since the third quarter. It was the fifth and last lead change of the game. Seattle cut it to 105-106, and the play log has Seattle committing "personal take fouls" on Clark at 17.1 and 3.5 seconds, sending her to the line for two free throws each time. She made all four.

That gives the last eight points of the game: Clark scored seven of Indiana's final eight (a three, and two pairs of free throws). Monique Billings had the other, a free throw.

Clark's 45 by quarter: 5, 14, 10, 16. Free-throw attempts by quarter: 0, 9, 5, 5.

What the numbers show, and what they don't

The numbers show that this game was decided at the line, and by a margin larger than the final score. They show that Seattle's offense played far above its season level and still lost.

They do not show that this is how Indiana wins in general, or that Seattle is generally a better team than its record. It is one game, and 31 free throws is a small enough sample that accuracy can swing it. We estimated possessions from box-score totals. And the play-by-play tells us when fouls were called, not whether they were right.