Real Madrid's 0-3 start was a road trip, not a crisis

A Real Madrid team with no wins after three EuroLeague games looks like a crisis. It was not one. It was a road trip. On Thursday Madrid, who won the first EuroLeague SuperCup in September, played their first home game of the season and beat Partizan, who had won all three of their games, 86-76. I think the 0-3 start never meant much, and the table already backs me up.

Look at where they lost, and by how much

Madrid's first three games:

• Round 1: lost 78-77 at Dubai.
• Round 2: lost 94-84 at Anadolu Efes in Istanbul.
• Round 3: lost 102-98 to Hapoel Tel Aviv, in Hapoel's home game, played in Sofia.

Three away games. One loss by a point, one by four, one by 10. Together, 15 points.

Then Madrid came home. Against Partizan they led from late in the first quarter to the end, by as many as 20, and made all 17 of their free throws.

The number that says it

Point difference is the plainest test of how a team is really playing, because one bounce changes a result but not a margin. After four rounds, Madrid's is -5.

That is the best of the five teams at 1-3. Paris are at -30, Maccabi Tel Aviv and Bayern Munich at -31, and Milan at -42. It is also better than three teams with more wins than Madrid, Hapoel (2-2, -8), Dubai (2-2, -21) and ASVEL (2-2, -24), and better than Baskonia (1-2, -30).

Swing one shot in Dubai and Madrid are 2-2 with the point difference of a 2-2 team. That is what this start was.

The case against me

The strongest argument against all this is about who beat them. Dubai, Efes and Hapoel are not the top of the competition. After four rounds Dubai and Hapoel are 2-2, and Efes are 1-2. A team with Madrid's roster is supposed to win those games, road or not, and a club that has just won a trophy does not get to blame its fixture list.

That is fair, and I will not pretend a 1-3 record is good. But it proves less than it seems. Madrid lost to those teams on their floors, and the EuroLeague does not hand out easy road games. Dubai beat Barcelona at home five days later. The test of a slump is whether a team gets beaten badly or keeps losing close. Madrid have not been blown out once, and the one time they played at home, they won by 10 against a team that was unbeaten.

A second fair point: four games is a tiny sample. It is. It is also the only evidence anyone has for calling this a crisis, so the sample cuts both ways. There are 34 rounds left.

What comes next, and my prediction

Madrid's next three games are at Milan on Tuesday, October 13, at home to ASVEL on Thursday, October 15, and at Maccabi Tel Aviv, in Belgrade, on Thursday, October 22. Milan and Maccabi are 1-3 with point differences of -42 and -31. ASVEL are 2-2 at -24.

So here is my prediction, and you can hold me to it: Madrid win all three and are 4-3 after Round 7. If they lose any of those three games, I was too kind to them, and the 0-3 start meant more than I think.

Until then, do not read too much into the 0-3. A team that loses by one, four and 10 away from home is not broken. It is a team that has not had a home game yet, and now it has.