Soles' margin predicted 22 to 24 wins. They won 21

Soles outscored opponents by 10.4 points a game in the 2026 LNBP regular season, the best margin in the league, and finished 21-7. That margin predicts 22 to 24 wins. They won one to three fewer than that.

It is a small gap, and it is close to the largest in the league. This piece sets every club's record beside its margin and looks at who sits above or below the line.

The figures come from the league's published regular-season standings: 28 games for each of the 14 clubs, 196 games in all. Total wins equal total losses at 196, and total points scored equal total points allowed at 33,120.

How closely margin tracks wins

Across the 14 clubs, margin per game and winning percentage have a correlation of 0.97. A correlation of 1.0 would mean the order matches exactly. This is nearly that.

Margin is a good guide to a record. A club's points scored and allowed give an estimate of how many games it should have won, called Pythagorean expectation: games played times points scored to a power, divided by points scored to that power plus points allowed to that power. The power is a choice, so we use two, 10 and 14, and show the range.

Club	Record	Margin per game	Expected wins	Wins minus expected
Soles	21-7	+10.4	22.0 to 24.1	-3.1 to -1.0
Astros	20-8	+8.1	20.3 to 22.2	-2.2 to -0.3
Fuerza Regia	19-9	+4.9	17.9 to 19.3	-0.3 to +1.1
Panteras	19-9	+3.5	16.8 to 17.8	+1.2 to +2.2
Lobos	18-10	+4.3	17.5 to 18.8	-0.8 to +0.5
Dorados	17-11	+1.5	15.2 to 15.7	+1.3 to +1.8
Mineros	15-13	+1.4	15.2 to 15.6	-0.6 to -0.2
Abejas	12-16	-0.1	13.9	-1.9
Santos	11-17	-4.6	9.0 to 10.3	+0.7 to +2.0
Diablos Rojos	11-17	-2.7	10.9 to 11.7	-0.7 to +0.1
Gambusinos	11-17	-3.4	10.1 to 11.2	-0.2 to +0.9
Freseros	9-19	-7.4	6.6 to 8.5	+0.5 to +2.4
El Calor	9-19	-3.9	9.6 to 10.8	-1.8 to -0.6
Correcaminos	4-24	-11.9	3.5 to 5.5	-1.5 to +0.5

At a power of 10, every club is within 2.2 wins of its expected record. At 14 the largest gap is Soles at 3.1.

Who is above the line, and who is below

Four clubs won more games than their margins predict at either power: Panteras, Dorados, Santos and Freseros. Panteras were 19-9 on a margin of +3.5 and won 1.2 to 2.2 more than expected. Dorados were 17-11 on +1.5 and won 1.3 to 1.8 more. Santos and Freseros, both well below .500, won 0.7 to 2.0 and 0.5 to 2.4 more than their margins suggest.

Five won fewer at either power: Soles, Astros, Mineros, Abejas and El Calor. Soles were 1.0 to 3.1 below, and Astros 0.3 to 2.2 below. Abejas were 12-16 on a margin of -0.1, which predicts 13.9 wins, so they won 1.9 fewer.

The effect on the seeds is real but small. Panteras finished fourth, level with Fuerza Regia at 19-9. By margin they rank fifth, behind Fuerza Regia at +4.9 and Lobos at +4.3. Lobos, seeded fifth, were 18-10, so their record is in line with their margin.

At the top, Soles' record and margin both rank first. The gap is only in how many wins the margin was worth.

The series so far

Soles and Panteras have played four times since October 29, and Soles have won three: 80-76, 83-65 and 87-75, with Panteras winning 87-84 on November 2. Three more games are listed, on November 5, 8 and 9. That is consistent with the season margins: Soles' was 6.9 points a game better than Panteras'.

What the numbers show, and what we read into them

The numbers show a table in which margin explains nearly all of the order. The club furthest below the line is Soles, and among those above it are Panteras, Freseros and Santos.

What it means is our reading. A 28-game season is short, and a gap of two wins is within the noise that close games create. We do not have game-by-game margins for the full season, so we cannot show which clubs won the close ones. We can say where the gaps fall: the two clubs furthest under the line, Soles and Astros, are the top two seeds, and Panteras, above it, are fourth.

The test is simple. Margin is often treated as a better guide to what comes next than a record is. If that holds here, Soles and Astros should look as strong in the playoffs as their margins say, and Panteras should look closer to their margin than their record. Four games between Soles and Panteras are a start, not an answer.