Ignore the 3-0. Pick the Dream to win the WNBA Finals

The Atlanta Dream will win the WNBA Finals. I will say it plainly, because the first argument you will hear against it is the weakest one on the table: Golden State beat Atlanta three times in the regular season. Do not let those three games make the pick for you.

This is my prediction, not a fact. At the end I say what would prove it wrong.

What the 3-0 actually was

The Valkyries won 77-66 and 78-75 in June, then 88-83 on July 4. That is 19 points across three games, and two of the three were decided by five or fewer. Our Finals preview lays out who scored in each one.

Three close games in early summer tell you the matchup is tight. They do not tell you who wins a best-of-seven in late October.

The full season says these teams are nearly equal

Over 44 games, Golden State outscored opponents by 7.1 points a game and Atlanta by 6.8. That is a gap of eight points across an entire season. The Valkyries finished 32-12 and the Dream 30-14, and the better record gives Golden State home court.

The raw scores make them look like opposites. Golden State allowed 75.1 points a game, the fewest in the league, and scored 82.2, more than only Connecticut. Atlanta scored 91.3, third in the league, and allowed 84.5.

Most of that is speed. Golden State played the slowest of the 15 teams, about 77 possessions a game by our estimate, against about 84 for Atlanta. Count points per 100 possessions instead, which takes the pace out, and the teams look alike: Golden State scored 106.1 and allowed 97.0, Atlanta scored 108.6 and allowed 100.5. That is a margin of 9.1 for the Valkyries and 8.2 for the Dream. (Our estimate counts possessions from the box score as shots, minus offensive rebounds, plus turnovers, plus 0.44 for each free throw attempt.)

The playoffs tilt it toward Atlanta

Atlanta are 5-0 in these playoffs: 2-0 against Washington, 3-0 against New York. They scored 85 or more in every one of those games and averaged 92.6.

They won the last two games against New York without Allisha Gray, who hurt her left hand in Game 1. Whether she plays on Saturday is the open question of the series. Atlanta have already shown they can win without her. If she is back, they are better than the team that swept the Liberty.

Golden State are 5-1. Dallas beat them 108-100 in overtime in the first round, and the Valkyries needed a third game to get through.

The best case for Golden State

The strongest argument for the Valkyries is not the 3-0. It is their defense, the thing I said on October 11 that Toronto and Portland should copy. Look at what it did to Las Vegas. The Aces scored 91.5 points a game in the regular season. In the semifinals Golden State held them to 60, 81 and, in regulation of Game 3, 71. If that defense does to Atlanta what it did to Las Vegas, my pick is wrong.

I do not think it will. Atlanta's defense, at 100.5 per 100 possessions, is the second-best in the league by the same estimate and the best Golden State have met in these playoffs. Dallas allowed 104.3 and Las Vegas 105.2. When both defenses are good, the better offense decides it, and Atlanta's scored 2.5 more points per 100 than Golden State's. Atlanta have also not scored fewer than 85 in a playoff game. That is a small edge, which is why I say six games and not five.

What would prove me wrong

Watch the first two games in San Francisco. If Golden State hold Atlanta under 80 points in both, the Las Vegas pattern is repeating, the Valkyries go 2-0 at home, and my pick is in trouble. If Atlanta score 85 or more in either game, the Dream are playing their series, not Golden State's.

My pick

Dream in six. If you are making a pick with friends, do not let three games from June and early July make the choice for you. Look at the 44 games and the five playoff wins, and pick Atlanta. Then check back with me after Game 2 on Monday.

Update: the Valkyries won Game 1, 68-64, after Atlanta led by three with 3:12 left.